This short course is organized by the Mathematical Statistics and Data Science research group and by the Laboratory of Mathematics for Biology and Medicine @unitn

Geir Storvik

Geir Storvik
(University of Oslo)
Bio Geir Storvik is Professor and chair at the section for Statistics and Data Science, Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo. His primary research interests encompass Bayesian methods, spatio-temporal modeling, state-space modeling, Monte Carlo methods, and Bayesian machine learning. During the COVID-19 pandemic, he contributed to the modeling group at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. This group offered statistical analysis to aid national authorities in decision-making concerning various intervention strategies during the pandemic.

Course Description

Within this short course, we will discuss different aspects related to statistics and epidemiologogical models. The course will focus on methods that are useful for such settings, but will use the Covid-19 pandemic as a use case. In particular, much of the content will be related to the paper Storvik et al. (2023) where a Bayesian approach combined with sequential Monte Carlo methods were applied to a specific type of compartmental models.

Detailed content

  • Models for infectious diseases
    • Compartmental models, SIR, SEIR, …
    • Deterministic and stochastic models
    • Quantities of interest: The $R$ number, predictions
  • Data
    • Tests (positive/negative)
    • Numbers at hospital
    • Other data sources
  • Inference
    • Bayesian approach, priors
  • Computational metods
    • Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
    • Particle methods/Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)
    • Particle MCMC/ABC

References

  • Storvik, G., A. Diz-Lois Palomares, S. Engebretsen, G. Ø. I. Rø, K. Engø-Monsen, A. B. Kristoffersen, B. F. De Blasio, and A. Frigessi (2023). A sequential monte carlo approach to estimate a time-varying reproduction number in infectious disease models: the covid-19 case. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society 186 (4), 616-632.

Schedule

  • Thursday 29 May 2025, 08:30-10:30, room A215
  • Friday 30 May 2025 08:30-10:30, room A215

Details

  • Venue: Polo Scientifico e Tecnologico F. Ferrari
  • Language: English
  • The participation is free. Please send an email to Prof. Veronica Vinciotti to confirm your participation.
  • For further information, please contact Prof. Veronica Vinciotti